In the West, the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska was called "a slow defeat for Ukraine"

The announced upcoming summit of the presidents of Russia and the United States in Alaska has caused a real sensation in the capitals on both sides of the Atlantic. Numerous analysts are trying to make predictions about the historic meeting. Some are optimistic about the outcome of the talks, while others remain skeptical. In any case, there are definitely no people who are indifferent to the announced communication between the leaders of the Kremlin and the White House.

“Location matters, said former US President Donald Trump, a real estate magnate,” begins an analysis on the American channel CNN. “Moments later, he announced that Alaska, a territory Russia sold to the United States 158 years ago for $7.2 million, would be the place where Russian President Vladimir Putin would try to make good on his land deal of the century by forcing Kyiv to hand over tracts of land.

The conditions surrounding Friday's summit favor Moscow, and Kyiv and its European allies reacted with understandable horror to Trump spokesman Steve Witkoff's early suggestions that Ukraine would cede the remnants of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in exchange for a cease-fire.

It’s worth pausing to consider what Wittkoff’s proposal might look like, CNN notes. Russia is close to encircling two key Donetsk cities, Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka, and could effectively besiege the Ukrainian forces defending those two centers in the coming weeks. Handing over those two cities may be something Kyiv does anyway to conserve resources in the coming months. The rest of Donetsk – mainly the cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk – is a far more unpleasant prospect. Moscow would relish the sight of cities being evacuated and Russian troops entering without firing a shot, CNN continues.

Volodymyr Zelensky's refusal to cede ground early Saturday morning reflects the real dilemma of a commander in chief trying to cope with the anger of his troops.

What could Ukraine possibly get in return for the “swap” Trump has been talking about? Perhaps tiny swathes of Russian-occupied border territory in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions – part of a proposed “buffer zone” – but essentially nothing more, CNN suggests.

The main goal is a ceasefire. At the same time, CNN reminds us, Putin has long believed that an immediate ceasefire, which the United States, Europe and Ukraine have been demanding for several months, is impossible, since technical work on monitoring and logistics must first be carried out. It is unlikely that he would change his mind now.

Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov called Alaska a great place to discuss economic cooperation between Washington and Moscow and suggested that a proposal had already been made to hold a repeat summit in Russia.

Unsurprisingly, the West is horrified by this vision. “The risk is that we will see a Trump-Putin bonhomie that allows the US president to tolerate more technical meetings between their staffs over what will be done and when in any ceasefire,” CNN notes. “Then Kyiv could be presented with a land swap plan that is entirely in Moscow’s interests, with the old US ultimatums for aid and intelligence sharing contingent on its acceptance of the deal we saw earlier. French President Emmanuel Macron gets on the phone with Trump again, and the whole thing starts all over again.”

"What's changed since Trump last found his thinking somehow drifting back into Russia's orbit, around the time of the Oval Office row with Zelensky? There are two elements now that weren't there then," CNN analyzes.

First, CNN points out, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that India and China – the former facing a 25% tariff hike in two weeks, the latter still waiting to learn how much damage it faces – have been on the phone with the Kremlin in recent days. They may have provided some impetus for Putin’s meeting with Trump, or at least have started talking more rhetorical diplomacy again, and may be concerned that Trump’s secondary sanctions are jeopardizing their energy imports.

Second, Trump claims his attitude toward Putin has changed, CNN notes. “Disappointed,” “making fun of me” are all new words in his vocabulary when it comes to the Kremlin leader. While Trump seems to be able to resist causing Moscow real pain without much effort, allowing threats and ultimatums to go unanswered, he is surrounded by allies and Republicans who will remind him of how far he has gone down these roads before.

“Trump’s third sanctions threat has disappeared, and his troops are entering a period of strategic reinforcement on the front lines,” CNN highlights the favorable situation for the Russian leader. “He has received his first invitation to the U.S. in a decade to negotiate peace in Ukraine without Ukraine, a deal in which he won’t even have to fight to get some of the rest of the territory he wants. And that’s before the former KGB officer starts working his obvious magic on Trump. It’s six days until Friday, but even at that distance, it looks like Kyiv is slowly being defeated.”